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PVC Fell Below The Annual Price

Business News October 26th

In October, domestic PVC futures were generally weak. After a brief small rebound, the futures returned to the weaker. After the current fall below the support of the annual line, the weakness further appeared. As of October 25, the consecutive PVC1901 contract closed at 6410 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.54%.

Analysts pointed out that the short-term and long-term interweaving of PVC fundamentals, the spot premium is more, and the short-term futures prices lack the basis for large increases. In the medium and long term, it is expected that there will be further weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in policies, stocks, international markets, upstream raw materials and downstream receiving.


Downstream wait and see transactions are weak

In the spot market, the recent long and short interweaving pattern is obvious. Good factors such as Xinjiang Tianye, Tangshan Sanyou and Ordos parking maintenance, there are still some enterprises in the late stage of maintenance; some manufacturers have not much inventory, the pressure is not large, with production and sales. The bearish factors include that Asian PVC prices are still at a low level, and the domestic prices are under the suppression; the downstream leading enterprises have orders, and the PVC price has a cost advantage to the downstream, but most of the industry are still bearish on the follow-up market, and the PVC purchases are still temporarily cautious.

Insiders analyzed that the recent spread between futures and spot prices has increased. From this perspective, it will take some time to correct, or the spot will continue to fall, or futures will continue to rise. In the near future, there is a lack of support for futures, so the possibility of the spot continuing to fall is a bit larger.

According to statistics, as of October 19, PVC started construction at 83.21%, up 1.7% from the previous month. Among them, the operating rate of PVC in calcium carbide method was 83.01%, up 2.59% from the previous month. The operating rate of PVC in ethylene method was 84.82%, down from the previous month. 2.71%. In terms of social inventory, as of October 19, the inventory of major warehouses in East China and South China decreased by 4.49%, down 8.11% year-on-year.


(Article source: China Securities Journal, China Securities Network)

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